Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 0.009249 0.010437 0.011740 0.013278 0.015048 0.017026 0.019412
2024-12-22 0.007045 0.008567 0.010384 0.012725 0.015683 0.019321 0.024175
2024-12-29 0.006014 0.007681 0.009785 0.012663 0.016538 0.021635 0.028945
2025-01-05 0.005539 0.007369 0.009790 0.013272 0.018225 0.025131 0.035689
2025-01-12 0.004823 0.006626 0.009100 0.012803 0.018309 0.026359 0.039333
2025-01-19 0.004290 0.006060 0.008570 0.012464 0.018487 0.027679 0.043228
2025-01-26 0.003944 0.005718 0.008311 0.012470 0.019149 0.029773 0.048603
2025-02-02 0.003789 0.005636 0.008419 0.013033 0.020730 0.033495 0.057237
2025-02-09 0.003505 0.005327 0.008143 0.012946 0.021221 0.035448 0.063046
2025-02-16 0.003302 0.005124 0.008008 0.013067 0.022062 0.038090 0.070511
2025-02-23 0.003061 0.004837 0.007710 0.012874 0.022317 0.039691 0.076192
2025-03-02 0.002923 0.004707 0.007657 0.013095 0.023338 0.042827 0.085457
2025-03-09 0.002740 0.004493 0.007456 0.013054 0.023912 0.045275 0.093933
2025-03-16 0.002490 0.004146 0.006998 0.012501 0.023444 0.045607 0.097901
2025-03-23 0.002341 0.003964 0.006814 0.012440 0.023938 0.047976 0.106949
2025-03-30 0.002300 0.003968 0.006964 0.013037 0.025844 0.053622 0.124964
2025-04-06 0.002121 0.003707 0.006601 0.012578 0.025464 0.054162 0.130332
2025-04-13 0.001974 0.003495 0.006315 0.012246 0.025320 0.055214 0.137248
2025-04-20 0.001881 0.003377 0.006198 0.012252 0.025924 0.058108 0.149755
2025-04-27 0.001856 0.003388 0.006333 0.012804 0.027841 0.064479 0.173534
2025-05-04 0.001764 0.003261 0.006182 0.012718 0.028251 0.067136 0.187015
2025-05-11 0.001700 0.003184 0.006126 0.012837 0.029166 0.071242 0.205945
2025-05-18 0.001611 0.003049 0.005942 0.012647 0.029294 0.073258 0.218657